COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF ALGERIA’S STARTUP SUPPORT POLICIES: A DETERMINISTIC EVALUATION (2020-2030)

Abstract

Algeria's post-2020 startup policies aim for economic diversification. This deterministic Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) evaluates them over 2020-2030 under a Moderate Scenario (7% real discount rate). It quantifies discounted costs (foregone revenues, admin, financing) and benefits (employment, innovation proxies, taxes). The analysis yields a negative Net Present Value (NPV) of -16.7 B DZD and a BenefitCost Ratio (BCR) of 0.70, suggesting quantifiable costs outweigh benefits under these assumptions. High administrative costs and foregone revenues are key drivers; benefits rely heavily on employment projections. This baseline assessment highlights potential cost-effectiveness challenges and the need for probabilistic analysis.